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Arizona the New Hotspot & EUR/USD - DAILY MARKET UPDATE

Chart of the Day: EUR/USD (1hr candlesticks)

•    Record daily increase of Arizona coronavirus cases, rising cases in Florida
•    EUR/USD hits a 2-week low (possible Head and Shoulders top)
•    Oil prices jump on hope for greater OPEC+ compliance


Shares in Asia are on course for a weekly gain but there is a more cautious tone heading into Friday. The rise of coronavirus cases in some US states as well as the precautionary closure of schools and travel restrictions in Beijing have taken the wind out of the sails of markets. 

Wall Street finished mixed, although the Nasdaq sneaked in a 5-day winning streak. European shares also dropped Thursday with shares of German payments company Wirecard the standout loser, dropping 60% amid fraud allegations.

The British pound was a top decliner across FX markets after the Bank of England topped up its quantitative easing program (QE) program by £100 billion and left interest rates at a record low of 0.1%. Higher than expected weekly US jobless claims saw the US dollar gain as a haven with EUR/USD hitting a 2-week low.
The price oil gained 2% on Thursday, putting it in touching distance of the 3-month high reached at the start of June. The prospect of greater compliance with record production cuts from OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) offset concerns that the group would not extend the cuts through to August.


You don’t need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy with 130 IQ.” – Warren Buffett


A sudden rise in coronavirus cases in Arizona is quickly making the US state into next ‘hot spot’ for the pandemic. The daily increase in cases was 2,519, a gain of 6.2% and a new record, leaving a total of 43,443 cases. Looking further out to Monday, worries over Arizona could be helped by New York City entering ‘phase 2’ of its reopening, which involves reopening outside cafes and restaurants. 


UK retail sales will be the economic data highlight on Friday. GBP/USD as well as some other pound crosses such as GBP/CHF are at or below June lows. Soft retail sales figures could be the catalyst for a breakdown. Expectations are for a monthly gain of +5.4% in May after a -18.1% drop in April.

Hopes have already been dashed that a virtual European Council meeting will offer any hope for agreement on the EU Recovery Fund by German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Merkel said she expects an agreement when they next meet in person. Politicians kicking the can down the road on EU-wide fiscal stimulus could be a short-term drag on EUR/USD, which is sitting at the neckline of a possible head and shoulders top pattern.


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