Dollar index hits big 100 level

“If you really look closely, most overnight successes took a long time.” – Steve Jobs

 

 

HEADLINES

 

 

• U.S. dollar surges as index hits 100 for first time in nearly two years
• Gold subdued as U.S. rate hike expectations dent appeal
• Oil prices set for weekly fall on stockpile releases
• Benchmark Treasury yield hits 3-yr high; dollar index reaches 100
• EUR/USD seen at 1.10 on a three-month view if Macron keeps the presidency – Rabobank
• EURUSD Short Term: Downside favored

 

 

FOREX

 

 

U.S. dollar surges as index hits 100 for first time in nearly two years

 

 

The U.S. dollar index on Friday advanced to 100 for the first time in nearly two years, boosted by the prospect of a more aggressive pace of Federal Reserve tightening to curb soaring inflation.

The greenback has gained ground against a basket of six currencies over the past month, particularly versus the euro, which has been pressured by investor concerns about the economic costs of war in Ukraine and a potentially nail-biting presidential election in France.

The index is up 1.5% this week, which would be its biggest weekly increase in a month, backed by hawkish remarks from several Fed policymakers.

 

 

COMMODITIES

 

 

Gold subdued as U.S. rate hike expectations dent appeal

 

 

Gold prices traded in a narrow range on Friday caught between expectations of aggressive U.S. interest rate increases and jitters over high inflation and the economic fallout of the Ukraine crisis.

Gold is highly sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates and Treasury yield, which increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding bullion, while boosting the greenback in which it is priced.

 

 

Oil prices set for weekly fall on stockpile releases

 

 

Oil prices edged up on Friday in choppy trading but remained on course for a second weekly fall after countries announced plans to release crude from their strategic stocks.

Both contracts are set to fall for a second consecutive week, with Brent on course for a 3% slide and WTI for a 2.5% decline. The benchmarks have been at their most volatile since June 2020 for weeks.

Member nations of the International Energy Agency (IEA) will release 60 million barrels over the next six months, with the United States matching that amount as part of its 180-million-barrel release announced in March.

 

 

STOCKS

 

 

Dow climbs 100 points Friday, stocks post weekly losses after Fed comments

 

 

U.S. stocks on Friday notched losses for the week as investors braced for tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pulled back from three consecutive weeks of gains.

ll major averages declined for the week, with the S&P 500 closing down 1.27% and Nasdaq 3.86%. The Dow dipped 0.28% week-to-date, hitting back-to-back weekly declines.

 

 

ANALYSIS

 

 

EUR/USD seen at 1.10 on a three-month view if Macron keeps the presidency – Rabobank 

 

 

“Not only have polling ahead of the French Presidential election brought the market cause for concern, but the outlook for the Eurozone economy is still very uncertain given issues related to energy security. In reflection of these concerns we have maintained a forecast of EUR/USD 1 .08 on a one-month view.”

“Our three-month forecast of EUR/USD 1.10 assumes that Macron keeps the presidency in France and that growth sustains in the Eurozone this year leaving market expectations for an ECB rate hike around year-end intact.” 

 

 

CHART

 

 

EURUSD Short Term: Downside favored

 

 

Technical View: Short position below 1.1. Target 1.08. Conversely, break above 1.1, to open 1.105.

 

 

Comments: The pair is expected to resume descend after correction.

 

 

Source: Trading Central
 

 

 

CALENDAR

 

 

*Times in GMT

 

 

Source: FX Street Economic Calendar

Footnotes
https://www.reuters.com/business/dollar-inches-up-new-two-year-peak-set-best-week-four-2022-04-08/
https://www.reuters.com/article/global-precious/precious-gold-subdued-as-u-s-rate-hike-expectations-dent-appeal-idUSL3N2W61LP
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-headed-3-weekly-fall-emergency-stocks-release-2022-04-08/
https://www.reuters.com/business/global-markets-wrapup-1-2022-04-08/
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-seen-at-110-on-a-three-month-view-if-macron-keeps-the-presidency-rabobank-202204080926
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html