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Dollar sinks after soft NFP

USD/JPY – Daily Candlesticks
Source: GKFX / MT4 (February 7, 2021)

The surge in USD/JPY has run into a confluence of resistance at the November 11 peak and the 200-day moving average near 105.70. However, the break above the falling trendline suggests the downtrend has changed – most likely into a new sideways range.


•    Cryptos turn lower over the weekend, Bitcoin under $38k, Ethereum under $1550
•    US dollar dropped after soft US jobs report
•    Aussie dollar pops 1% on Friday, backed by rising commodity prices
•    COT report shows euro long positions trimmed to 137k from 163k
•    Oil price is now up nearly 20% year-to-date
•    Gold and silver swing lower – XAU nears ‘death cross’
•    House approved budget package, allows path for Biden’s $1.9 billion stimulus to pass
•    Japanese and Korean auto stocks pop on possibility of Apple Car partnership
•    GameStop stock +19% after broker Robinhood lifts all restrictions
•    Uranium stocks jump in what could be a new target for Reddit traders
•    THIS WEEK: Twitter earnings, Coca-Cola earnings, Walt Disney earnings
•    DAY AHEAD: Softbank earnings, Germany industrial production


“Even the intelligent investor is likely to need considerable willpower to keep from following the crowd.” – Benjamin Graham


*Daily closing price
↗ EUR/USD    1.2037        (+0.67%)
↗ GBP/USD    1.3715        (+0.46%)
↘ USD/JPY    105.36        (-0.17%)
↗ S&P 500    3886.83    (+0.39%)
↗ Hang Seng     29,288.68    (+0.60%)
↗ Gold        1811.62    (+1.08%)
↗ Oil (Brent)    59.34        (+0.85%)
↘ Bitcoin    38,435        (-2.09%)




The US dollar dropped after the January non-farm payrolls data came in weaker than expected. The data triggered profit-taking in USD/JPY and short-covering in EUR/USD. CFTC Commitment of Traders data from Friday show that speculators made a big cut to euro long positions amid the decline in EUR/USD. But the large net-long position will add some firepower to any attempt at a bounce in the euro this week. Any news showing that Europe is fixing its vaccine rollout would assist euro gains.

Bitcoin $40k

Bitcoin and other cryptos swung lower on Sunday after big gains on Friday and Saturday. Bitcoin dropped back below the key $40,000 level and Ethereum backed off from the record high reached last week. The big two cryptos (Bitcoin and Ethereum) are ceding market share to some of the other well-known altcoins.

Gold 1800

Gold bounced back from the $1800 per oz level on Friday but has only partially unwound the big decline on Thursday. The imminent ‘death cross’ of the 50-day moving average falling below the 200-day moving average is a sign that the longer-term bullish trend for gold could be reversing.


*Times in GMT
06:45 – Swiss Unemployment Rate s.a (MoM)(Jan) [3.5 % Exp vs. 3.4 % Prev]     
07:00 – Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)(Dec) [0.3 % Exp vs. 0.9 % Prev]


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