EUR/USD at 1.21 as busy week begins

HEADLINES

 

US Dollar falls as yields languish; euro gets extra late-day lift – Reuters

 

The dollar fell against major currencies on Friday as U.S. yields languished and the euro got an extra late-day lift following a earlier boost from an upbeat survey of purchasing managers. The dollar index fell 0.5% to 90.8080, a level not seen since early March, after the euro climbed 0.7% to $1.2098, pushing through its earlier high for the week.

 

The euro was the top dog this week in the FX market and it's at a fresh 7-week high - ForexLive

 

The euro has extended its gains today and edged above Tuesday's high of 1.2080, up 67 pips. It's the best-performing G10 currency this week, edging out the yen. The US dollar is at the bottom of the pile, just ahead of CAD (no love for the loonie despite the BOC).

 

Bitcoin millionaire puts money on Greens in German election - AP

 

A German software developer who made a fortune from bitcoin has given the environmentalist Green Party one of the biggest political donations in the country’s history in hopes it will win this year’s national election — and consider banning the digital currency.

 

Take Heart, Investors. A Higher Capital-Gains Tax Wouldn’t Be as Scary as It Sounds. -Barrons

 

Stocks hit an air pocket when the news was reported early Thursday afternoon, suggesting that the reaction was caused in great part by machines programmed to scan headlines. By Friday, the losses were more than recouped after human investors had time to read and reassess the reports.

 

Oil advances on demand recovery hopes, but posts a loss for the week – CNBC

 

Oil prices rose on Friday on hopes of a fuel demand recovery in the United States and Europe as economic growth picks up and lockdowns ease, but worries about India’s raging second wave of COVID-19 cases kept a lid on gains.

 

Palladium extends record run, gold dips on strong U.S. data - CNBC

 

Palladium extended its blistering rally to an all-time high within striking distance of $3,000 on Friday on supply concerns and bets for improving demand, while gold pulled back on strong U.S. economic data.

 

It's Fed week but that's just the start of a crazy economic calendar – ForexLive

 

Monday:  Durable goods orders
Tuesday: Consumer confidence, Richmond Fed
Wednesday: Advanced goods trade balance, FOMC decision
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, Q1 GDP advance
Friday: PCE inflation and spending, U Mich final

 

U.S. lifts pause on use of Johnson & Johnson Covid vaccine, clearing way for states to use doses - CNBC

 

Bank of Canada’s More Hawkish Tone Is ‘Prudent,’ Vachon Says – BNN

 

Elon Musk Will Host Saturday Night Live – Marketwatch

 

ANALYSIS

 

Federal Reserve meeting: Inching towards action - ING

 

Recent comments indicate that officials think this is some way off with the March forecast update, suggesting that most FOMC members still think 2024 will be the start-point for lift-off in interest rates. None of this will change next week.

 

Weekly forex futures positioning data for the CFTC for the week ending April 20, 2021 - ForexLive

 

•  EUR long 81K vs 67K long last week. Longs increased by at 14 K
•  GBP long 25K vs 26K long last week. Longs decrease by 1K
•  JPY short 60K vs 58K short last week. Shorts increased by 2K
•  CHF short 2K vs 1K long last week. Shorts increased by 3K
•  AUD short 2K vs 4K long last week. Shorts increased by 6K.
•  NZD long 4K vs 3K long last week. Longs increased by 1K
•  CAD long 13K vs 2K long last week. Longs increased by 11K

 

WISDOM

 

“Generally, the greater the stigma or revulsion, the better the bargain.” – Seth Klarman

 

CHART

 

Bitcoin – Daily Candlesticks

  
Source: GKFX Prime Metatrader 4 

EUR/USD has hit 1.21 after breaking out of a down-sloping channel on the daily chart. Friday’s candlestick was a bullish engulfing pattern, engulfing the bodies of the 3 previous days. Above 1.21 there is potential resistance from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. - Prepared by Trading Writers*

 

CALENDAR

 

*Times in GMT

 
Source: FX Street Economic Calendar

 

Footnotes

 

FXStreet Economic Calendar https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar

Reuters https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-forex/dollar-falls-as-yields-languish-euro-gets-extra-late-day-lift-idUSKBN2CA022

Reuters https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-forex/dollar-falls-as-yields-languish-euro-gets-extra-late-day-lift-idUSKBN2CA022

CNBC https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/jj-covid-vaccine-us-ends-recommended-pause-on-use.html

BNN https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/bank-of-canada-s-more-hawkish-tone-is-prudent-vachon-says-1.1594481

AP https://j7dfh9pbumnyhazfmcsfgm9m.apnews.com/article/environment-national-elections-elections-bitcoin-financial-markets-0575a00ea926ca433de45d87d1ef9121

ING https://think.ing.com/articles/federal-reserve-preview-inching-towards-action/

Markit https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/8ef96bce0f404e018361b4c310c791ef

ForexLive https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/!/cftc-commitment-of-traders-00-20210423

Barrons https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/elon-musk-will-host-saturday-night-live-that-might-just-matter-to-the-stock-51619364684?mod=markets

MarketWatch https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/take-heart-investors-a-higher-capital-gains-tax-wouldnt-be-as-scary-as-it-sounds-51619224906?mod=markets

CNBC https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/oil-markets-demand-outlook-in-us-and-europe-covid-situation-in-india.html

CNBC https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/gold-markets-us-treasury-yields-dollar.html
 

 

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