Non-farm Payrolls

GURU WISDOM

"Don't look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack!" — John Bogle
 

MARKETS

*Daily closing price
↗ EUR/USD    1.2143        (+0.23%)
↗ GBP/USD    1.3454        (+0.68%)
↘ USD/JPY    103.89        (-0.48%)
↗ S&P 500    3668.90    (+0.00%)
↗ Hang Seng    26,728        (+0.74%)
↗ Gold spot    1842.14    (+0.61%)
↗ Oil (Brent)    48.74        (+1.02%)
↗ Bitcoin    19,137        (+0.72%)
 

NEWS

 

GBP/USD 1.35

Brexit talks are in their endgame and cable traders seem quietly confident a last minute deal will be struck. The pound has been gaining over the dollar like almost every other currency. The assumption all along has been that some kind of compromise will be reached. Should a no deal arise, it might not be as bad for GBP/USD as once thought- the relatively bigger move might be found in EUR/GBP where the euro has been acting much stronger than the dollar. EUR/USD closed above 1.21 on Thursday.
 

Commodity FX

Big gains in oil and industrial metal prices have been pushing up commodity currencies like the Aussie and Loonie. Both AUD/USD and USD/CAD set 2 ½ year highs on Thursday. Oil prices gained after OPEC and Russia agreed to raise production from January by 500,000 barrels per day – a quarter of the 2 million barrel output hike originally planned. The oil prices gains lifted CAD. At the same time an ongoing surge in copper and iron ore prices helped AUD rise over 0.74 versus the USD. 
 

FTSE gains

The FTSE 100 struck 6,500 and was a standout gainer across global indices on Thursday thanks to the UK being the first country to approve a covid-19 vaccine and hopes for a smooth end to the Brexit transition period in just over a month. Although many firms in the FTSE 100 would benefit from a weaker pound because of international earnings, the UK crashing out of the EU without a trade deal would make most shares in the FTSE 100 less attractive.
 

DAY AHEAD 

*Times in GMT
00:30    AUD    Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)(Oct)         1.6 %    1.6 %
07:00    EUR    Factory Orders s.a. (MoM)(Oct)         1.5 %    0.5 %
13:30    USD    Nonfarm Payrolls(Nov)             469 K    638 K
13:30    USD    Unemployment Rate(Nov)         6.8 %    6.9 %
13:30    CAD    Net Change in Employment(Nov)     20 K    83.6 K