S&P 500 tops 4,000 for first time

TAKEAWAYS

•    The benchmark S&P 500 index closed above 4,000 for the first time
•    Oil price rallies after OPEC agrees to gradually raise production
•    USD/JPY snaps 6-day winning streak
•    EUR/USD and GBP/USD gain amid risk on sentiment
•    Gold price rallies for second day after holding the March low
•    US Treasury yields slide after 2nd biggest quarterly rally on record
•    Pfizer covid vaccine is 91% effective according to latest update
•    DAY AHEAD: Non-farm payrolls

BEST CHART
NZD/USD – Weekly Candlesticks

 
Source: GKFX / MT4 (April 1, 2021)

NZD/USD has pulled back to the 0.70 level, which was also prior resistance from the peak of December 2018 and is also a 50% retracement of the rally from August through February.

GURU WISDOM

“Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.” – George Soros

MARKETS

*Daily closing price
↗ EUR/USD    1.1772        (+0.37%)
↗ GBP/USD    1.3828        (+0.35%)
↘ USD/JPY    110.63        (-0.07%)
↗ S&P 500    4008.67    (+0.91%)
↗ Hang Seng    28,927.0    (+1.98%)
↗ Gold        1728.10    (+2.53%)
↗ Oil (Brent)    64.66        (+3.06%)
↘ Bitcoin    58,702        (-0.16%)

NEWS

The S&P 500 index struck 4,000 as tech stocks bounced back alongside cyclicals in a broad-based rally, helped on by the news of Joe Biden’s $2.3 billion government spending plans. FANG stocks led the gains thanks to falling bond yields and the idea that tech stocks got oversold.

OPEC agreed to add 2 million barrels of crude output from May through July, bucking consensus going into the meeting that the cartel would leave output unchanged. Oil prices initially fell but rallied off the lows with the sense that the gradual production increases remove some of the uncertainty that might have lingered were supply left unchanged and then suddenly raised later.

A surprise rise in weekly jobless claims knocked the US dollar on Thursday, helping lift gold and the other major currencies. It does not seem to have dampened expectations for a strong March US jobs report today. The consensus is for 647,000 jobs created but that masks a wide variation in predictions from 300,000 all the way up to 1,000,000. 

It is unusual to have NFP day when it is a holiday. The US stock market will be closed as will London, meaning lower liquidity with many American and British traders off for the day. The result might mean a more volatile reaction in the markets that are open such as forex.

DAY AHEAD 

*Times in GMT
Good Friday holiday in USA / UK
12:30 - Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar) [647 K Exp vs. 379 K Prev]    
12:30 – US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)(Mar) [0.2 % Exp vs. 0.2 % Prev]
12:30 – US Unemployment Rate (Mar) [6 % Exp vs. 6.2 % Prev]

Source: TradingWriters.com