Stocks recovery continues

“If you always do what you’ve always done, you’ll always get what you’ve always got.” - Henry Ford

 

 

 

HEADLINES

 

 

 

• Dollar restrained by risk revival, spread of rate speculation
• Gold gains as weaker dollar, Ukraine tensions boost appeal
• Oil little changed despite talk of possible OPEC+ supply boost
• After bleak January, world stocks start new month adrift
• AUD/USD: Aussie to remain weak after a modest hawkish shift from the RBA – Wells Fargo

 

 

 

FOREX

 

 

 

Dollar restrained by risk revival, spread of rate speculation

 

 

The dollar was carrying a couple of bruises on Wednesday as Federal Reserve officials played down the chance of a half point rate hike in March and a rally in global equity markets tarnished some of its safe haven allure.

Stellar results from Alphabet after the bell saw that stock surge 7% and lift Wall Street futures, benefiting risk sensitive currencies including the Australian and New Zealand dollars. 

The euro looked steadier at $1.1270 , having risen 0.3% overnight and further away from last week's 20-month trough at $1.1122.

 

 

 

COMMODITIES

 

 

 

Gold gains as weaker dollar, Ukraine tensions boost appeal

 

 

Gold prices extended gains for a second session on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar retreated and ongoing tensions over Ukraine underpinned the metal's safe-haven demand. Fed policymakers said they'll raise interest rates in March but spoke cautiously on Monday about what might follow in the face of an uncertain outlook for inflation and an ongoing pandemic.

 

 

Oil little changed despite talk of possible OPEC+ supply boost

 

 

Oil prices ended little changed on Tuesday, as geopolitical tensions and tight global supplies supported the market even as some speculated that OPEC+ might boost supplies more than expected.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, together known as OPEC+, has been expected to decide at a monthly meeting on Wednesday tokeep gradually increasing production. But Goldman Sachs said there was a chance the oil market's rally would prompt a faster ramp-up.

 

 

 

STOCKS

 

 

 

After bleak January, world stocks start new month adrift

 

 

Global equity markets wavered on Tuesday as a new month saw investors weigh strong earnings from big-name U.S. companies against mixed economic data and inflation worries.

While U.S. job openings increased to near record highs in December, a measure of U.S. manufacturing activity fell to a 14-month low in January amid an outbreak of COVID-19 infections, supporting views that economic growth lost steam at the start of the year.

 

 

 

ANALYSIS

 

 

 

AUD/USD: Aussie to remain weak after a modest hawkish shift from the RBA – Wells Fargo

 

 

“We believe inflation will remain elevated in the coming quarters and that by late this year the RBA will be confident enough to begin raising rates. Accordingly, we have made a modestly hawkish shift on our own monetary policy outlook, and now forecast an initial 15 bps rate hike in November 2022 and a cumulative 100 bps of rate hikes in 2023.”

Still, even with a more timely path for monetary tightening, RBA rate hikes should still lag behind those of the Federal Reserve and fall short of monetary tightening currently priced in by market participants. Accordingly, even with an outlook for a solid Australian economy and slightly faster RBA monetary tightening, we still anticipate moderate weakness in the Australian dollar versus the greenback over the medium-term.”

 

 

 

CHART

 

 

 

Nasdaq – Daily Candlesticks

Source: GKFX Prime Metatrader 4

NAS100 has retraced 61.8% of the sharp drop from January 12 to 15,150. Should the price rise further, the next possible resistance comes from the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at 15,500. - Prepared by Trading Writers*

 

 

 

CALENDAR

 

 

 

*Times in GMT

 

 

Source: FX Street Economic Calendar

SOURCE:

https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-wrapup-1-pix-2022-02-01/
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/dollar-idles-after-tumble-19-month-peak-aussie-firm-before-rba-2022-02-01/
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/gold-muted-weaker-dollar-counters-rate-hike-bets-2022-02-01/
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-edges-higher-tight-supply-post-pandemic-recovery-2022-02-01/