Turkish lira new record low

MARKETS

The US dollar posted small gain on Thursday thanks to data showing fewer than expected Americans applied for jobless benefits in the last week. It’s also a consolidation after five weeks of consistent dollar weakness and ahead of today’s big jobs report. The Turkish lira struck record lows against the euro and US dollar.

The Nasdaq closed above 11,000 for the first time with the Dow closing higher for a 5th day running. European shares closed mostly lower after the Bank of England meeting and shares in Asia were mixed with South Korea’s Kopsi the outperformer.

Metals markets soared again for a second day, while oil is struggling to keep up because of fears of falling demand.
 

GURU WISDOM

 "It's not how much money you make, but how much money you keep, how hard it works for you, and how many generations you keep it for." - Robert Kiyosaki
 

Turkish lira

Easing money policy in Turkey including a 15% cut to interest rates over 12 months is devaluing the lira. A fragile Turkish economy has been hit by the pandemic and there are fears of stagflation – that is both rising prices and unemployment. The USD/TRY rate has been steady while other TRY cross rates have been rising. There is now growing speculation that currency market interventions from authorities to limit declines in the lira will ultimately fail, creating another leg of currency weakness.

Silver won’t stop

The price move of silver has now gone parabolic, rising from $19 to $29 and gaining near enough 50% in three weeks. There are no specific drivers other than a fresh inflow of capital into spot silver and silver ETFs. The price has become bubble-like, making quick gains possible with an equally possible risk that the bubble pops any minute. 
 

NFP Preview

US President Donald Trump said there will be another “big job number on Friday” and economists seem to agree with consensus for 1.6 million new jobs in July and unemployment down to 10.5%. 

The 1.6 million would mark a deceleration from the massive 4.8 million jobs gained in June, perhaps fuelling concerns the recovery is flattening. Of course very few are ‘new jobs’ but simply people returning to work after lockdown, which suggests the number has room to be higher. The downside risk comes from the states that postponed reopening plans, potentially getting in the way of rehiring plans.