Week Ahead: July 6

Short Description

What’s Next for Markets in Q3? It’s the first full week of the third quarter. I look back on an extraordinary Q2 –with some of the biggest quarterly gains on record for stock markets to see what could come next for stocks, forex and commodities. Of course, I also preview the main items on the economic calendar too. Thanks! Rich

Video Script

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Hi everyone

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I’m previewing the week ahead
in financial markets but I’m also

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previewing the quarter ahead
because now of course we’re in Q3.

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And I think it’s important
when doing that to remark

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what an EXTRAORDINARY
quarter we’ve just come through.

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Did you know that the
S&P 500 just had its best

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one hundred days in
nearly NINE decades!?

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I have more stats like that to
throw at you in this video

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as well as my top highlights from
this week’s economic calendar.

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BUT yes I know you
were waiting so here it is:

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This week’s riddle.

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If you were running a race,
and you passed the person

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in second place, what
place would you be in now?

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You would be in SECOND place.

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Admit it- who thought first place?

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Remember you’ve got to beat
the best to be the best guys!

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If you liked that riddle
please click like button

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it really helps us spread the
word about these videos!

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So worth noting upfront this
week is light on top tier US data,

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which is quite normal after
the July 4th long weekend.

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German factory orders
for May is first up and we’re

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expecting very little
reprieve for German factories.

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ISM non-manufacturing
will be interesting after we

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saw manufacturing return
to expansion last week.

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China foreign reserve data
is always one to watch in

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case the PBOC have been
intervening in FX markets.

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There is Swiss unemployment
and the Europian Commission

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release growth forecasts mid-week.

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China inflation is out Thursday

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then we round of the week
with Canadian unemployment.

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So I promised you some
extra facts on this last quarter.

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The Dow Jones had its
best quarter since 1987,

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the S&P 500 had its best quarter since 1998

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and the Nasdaq rose an
amazing 28% in one quarter.

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It was the best quarter
for oil prices in thirty years

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and copper had its best quarter in a decade

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and of course gold reached 8-year
highs for its best quarter since 2016.

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In the currency space it was
all about the weakening dollar,

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which fell against all major currencies
with the big winner being the Aussie dollar.

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Now of course, the question is what
happens next after such huge market moves?

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Well we can take some
guidance from history.

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If we focus on the S&P 500,

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according to SunTrust
advisory this was the index’s

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fourth best quarterly
performance since 1950.

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Following the top 10
best quarters since 1950,

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the S&P 500 rose the
following quarter every time

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that’s ten out of ten times
with an average rise of 8%.

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Added to that, the index
was higher one year

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later after nine out of
those ten best quarters.

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The only exception was a notable
one the 1987 stock market crash.

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Of course there is huge uncertainty
about the direction of the pandemic

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so we can’t know for sure whether history
will repeat itself for an eleventh time.

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Right thanks everyone,

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good luck trading and
make sure to subscribe to

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our channel so you
don’t miss the next video.

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Thanks for watching!