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French election & ECB

Video Script

Number one:

France’s Presidential election. The first round of the election is on Sunday the 10th of April. Any market reaction should appear once the results are known this coming Monday. President Emmanuel Macron and nationalist leader Marine Le Pen are expected to make it to the second round of voting on Sunday, April 24th. A Len Pen victory could be a shock for financial markets and pressure the euro.


Number two:

ECB meeting. Eurozone CPI just reached a massive 7.5% year-over-year in March and the ECB’s negative interest rate policy is starting to look a bit ridiculous in the face of such rampant inflation. Still, the consensus is for the ECB to keep interest rates unchanged at this meeting as policymakers worry about the economic impact of the war in Ukraine.


Number three:

Bank of Canada meeting. Following its own and the Fed’s hike last month and with 5.4% annual inflation in Canada, the BOC is expected to hike rates with a double 50-basis point move this week. Given the strength in the dollar and the loonie, USD/CAD has been range-bound but a CAD uptrend is in place against European crosses, including EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD.


Number four:

RBNZ meeting. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to continue its steady pace of rate hikes throughout 2022 but calls are increasing for a faster pace. ANZ Bank is expecting two 50-basis point hikes this year, the first one possibly being at the May meeting.. The kiwi dollar is further being buoyed by rising commodity prices with NZD/USD testing the key 0.70 psychological price level.


Number five:

Economic data. Most important will be US CPI out on Tuesday as well as PPI on Wednesday. The other big US datapoint will be retail sales on Thursday. The UK also releases inflation data on Thursday. And a quick reminder it's the Good Friday holiday so most European stock markets will be closed on Friday.

You can click the link in the description to see the full economic calendar.


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