Week Ahead: June 29

Short Description

NFP, Powell Testimony & Coronavirus cases This week my top three things to watch in the week ahead are the 1. Testimony from Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. 2. The rise in US coronavirus cases and why markets seem unconcerned so far. 3. Non-farm Payrolls. I also rundown the highlights from the economic calendar. Thanks! Rich

Video Script

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Hi everyone,

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I’ve made this video to
help you prepare for the

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week ahead in forex, stocks
and commodity markets.

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I’ve got three top things
for you to watch this week

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BUT - and yes I know this is becoming
a habit – let’s start with a riddle

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Where does SUCCESS come before WORK?

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The dictionary.

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I figured that was a bit
MOTIVATIONAL for you guys too!

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Remember you can’t get the profits
without putting the hours in first!

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If you liked the please
click the like button

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it really helps us spread
the word about these videos!

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First let’s first preview
the economic calendar

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and then I’ll go through my
top three highlights for the week.

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So remember this is a shortened
week for US markets which

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are closed on Friday because
its Independence Day weekend.

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So German CPI is expected
to hold steady in June at 0.5%.

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US Pending home sales cratered in April
so let’s see if we get a rebound in May.

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There are two China manufacturing
PMIs to watch this week

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the NBS on Tuesday
then Caixin on Wednesday.

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Tuesday Fed Chair Powell and US Treasury
Secretary Mnuchin testify to Congress.

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On Wednesday US ADP
is expected to show 3.5 million

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private US jobs
were created in June,

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followed by FOMC minutes.

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On Thursday we have NFP
a day earlier than usual and

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the latest version of
Eurozone June PMIs on Friday.

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So the first of my ‘Top three
things to watch’ is of course

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the testimony from America’s
two economic super heroes

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Jerome Powell and Steve Mnuchin.

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They will both appear before
the US House of Representative

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Financial Services Committee to
talk about the coronavirus response.

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In very simple terms,
markets want to hear the Fed Chair

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reiterates that monetary
stimulus is here to stay

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AND for the Treasury
Secretary to keep the hope

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alive that a second US
stimulus package is coming

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and the sooner and the bigger the better.

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If they deliver, that should be a
positive force for risk assets including

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stocks, metals, oil and currencies
like the Aussie and the pound.

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Next is not so much a data point but a
comment on the rising coronavirus cases.

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The way I’m looking at
this is that it takes two things

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for rising cases to be
important for financial markets.

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The first is that the rising
cases have a direct economic

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impact via another full
lockdown or travel restrictions.

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It was the 14-day
quarantine put in place by

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New York, New Jersey
and Connecticut for people

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travelling from US States
with high infection rates

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that caused a big wobble
in markets last week.

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The second thing is that economic
data needs to start getting worse

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because that is the evidence
the economic recovery is

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going to be harder and
longer than currently expected.

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For the moment, economic data is
rebounding – even surprising on the upside.

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Last but not least is, of
course non-farm payrolls.

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This is a case in point about
economic data surprising to the topside.

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There was a delayed reaction but I
think the shock American job gains in may

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go a long way to
explain the resiliency of the S&P 500.

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Another positive surprise
this week can keep the rally in

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shares going, and keep
havens like the dollar depressed.

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Equally, a disappointment
could bring about that

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bigger market correction
many have been waiting for.

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Right thanks everyone,

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good luck trading and make
sure to subscribe to our channel

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so you don’t miss the next video.